THE Melbourne Cup will present, in the brilliant So You Think, the hottest favourite in the race's recent history - but only one sure thing. Yet more rain.
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So You Think, the superstar that will prompt the ailing 82-year-old trainer Bart Cummings to leave his sick bed tomorrow and travel to Flemington in the hope of winning an amazing 13th Melbourne Cup, is as short as $3.50 with some bookmakers, a miserly quote in a 24-horse field. Not since 1982 when Veandercross started at $3.25 (and lost to Subzero) has there been a shorter-priced Melbourne Cup favourite.
Since the four-year-old's breathtaking victory in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday, the question has not been whether So You Think could win the Melbourne Cup, but what could possibly beat it. The most popular answer is not another horse, but factors such as the extra distance (the 3200 metres of the Melbourne Cup is 1160 metres further than So You Think has raced before) and a bog track.
The city that inspired the Crowded House song Four Seasons In One Day has experienced just one in recent days - a belated winter. More heavy rain fell yesterday and, as the puddles became small lakes, the scenes at Flemington were somewhat reminiscent of 1976 when a deluge flooded the course and the wet-track specialist Van Der Hum swam to victory - ominously, beating Cummings's heavily fancied Gold and Black.
For those planning to parade at Flemington in strappy dresses, the forecast does not get much better for this year's Melbourne Cup, with 18 degrees and showers predicted.
More significant for those with fortunes invested in the cup runners is how greatly the state of the track will deteriorate if there is yet more rain. Flemington's track manager, Mick Goodie, remained upbeat yesterday, predicting that with only intermittent showers the surface could be upgraded from its current ''heavy nine'' to a ''dead five''.
For the layperson, that means soft but firm going - conditions that should not hinder So You Think; but which might favour, particularly, most of the nine internationals in the field that are accustomed to running on heavier tracks.
The connections of the internationals who galloped yesterday morning at their temporary home at the Werribee quarantine centre were upbeat about their chances. But, after So You Think's Saturday stroll, most were well aware the local champion would be difficult to beat.
Dermot Weld, who was the first international raider to win the Melbourne Cup with Vintage Crop in 1993, went so far as to suggest So You Think could be ''almost unbeatable''. High praise, even if the Irishman has a reputation for talking down the chances of his own horses - this year, Profound Beauty - and talking up the credentials of the opposition.
Luca Cumani, who trains Bauer and Manighar, was also lavish in his praise of So You Think. ''For the jockey it must be the same as riding a motorbike,'' he said. ''Because you just turn the gas on and off he goes.''
