Class will carry Golden Slipper favourite Earthquake through Rosehill slush

By Max Presnell
April 5 2014 - 3:00am
Favourite: A heavy track will be no barrier to the classy Earthquake. Photo: Dallas Kilponen
Favourite: A heavy track will be no barrier to the classy Earthquake. Photo: Dallas Kilponen

Murk and gloom on Friday raised doubts about favourite Earthquake in the $3.5 million Golden Slipper at Rosehill Gardens. ''Mossfun is a proven wet-tracker and has had the perfect preparation for the race,'' Sportsbet's Shaun Anderson said. ''If the track is very heavy, she could potentially push for favouritism.'' The track was described as a slow six on Friday but more rain will bring market alterations. Unlike Mossfun, Earthquake is untried on tracks other than good. Only recently, Cancel, a full-sister to Earthquake, being by Exceed And Excel out of Cataclysm, finished a dismal last on a Hawkesbury heavy 10 on March 27. Cancel was $3.50 favourite. Still, Betfair's Dom Beirne has Earthquake on top. His computer ratings indicate a margin in favour of Earthquake by three-quarters of a length to Mossfun, with about a further 1½ lengths to Unencumbered, he said. ''On the dry with no penalties for barrier draw and speed map, the IWS [ratings] market would have priced Earthquake $1.70 and Mossfun $6.50. In the past 25 years, the lowest IWS handicap ratings ever to win a Golden Slipper were 63 for a filly and 64.3 for a male. This year, only the two fillies are predicted to reach 63. The other 14 runners have provided no evidence that they can get to this historical minimum. Of course, two-year olds can improve sharply, but realistically, if either of the favourites rate to expectation (their potential rating), the remainder can't win.'' Alas, heavy surfaces can play havoc with ratings assessed on better going. To what degree barrier positions will play a role will depend on how the surface reacts to seven races before the main event. If reserve Scratch Me Lucky doesn't run, Earthquake launches from 12 while Mossfun is in 11. Thus Kerrin McEvoy on Earthquake should always have Mossfun in his sights. Early speed is anticipated from Eloping (14) and Oakleigh Girl (10). I'm gambling that Earthquake will be effective in all going. She'll need to be to beat Mossfun - if it comes up mud.

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