Geelong has done enough in 2014 to win 13 of its 17 games, including six of its past seven, as opponents around it begin to falter. The Cats, after Saturday night’s narrow scrape against Greater Western Sydney, are in the prime position of second on the ladder.

They are only one win behind where they were at this stage last season, two wins ahead of 2012, and two wins shy of their tally to this point of 2011, their last premiership year.

Yet even two seasons ago, when the Cats had lost a couple more games and just struggled to shrug off a determined Adelaide at their supposed fortress at Simonds Stadium, you would have found more takers for Geelong’s premiership chances than you will get right now.

That annoys the hell out of the faithful, who continue to warn of the dangers of writing off their team. Not so Scott and the Geelong brains trust, funnily enough, who know well that for all their public positivity and “excitement about how much we can improve”, the time to find that improvement is growing ever shorter.

For the Cats, season 2014 is starting to turn into a footballing Melbourne Cup. They have sat well off the frontrunners until the final turn, but can they really now find the sort of surge Kiwi did in 1983?

Perhaps the other apt analogy, given some of the wobbles by various contenders over the past weekend, is Steven Bradbury’s famous Winter Olympics gold. But even Bradbury was able to stay on his skates more convincingly than did the Cats in the last quarter against GWS on Saturday night.

The other complication in assessing Geelong currently is the fact it has not played another top-four team since it was taken apart by Sydney in round 11, which by the time the Cats play their next game, will be nine weeks ago.

Little wonder that even the hierarchy at Simonds Stadium, after next weekend’s bye, is viewing the next two games against North Melbourne and Fremantle, as decisive in the context of just where their season is headed.

Certainly, though, some key indicators offer grounds for concern about Geelong’s capacity to mix it with the rest of the top four. Key among them is that of contested ball. Before the weekend (the last time every team had played an even number of games), five of the top six teams on the ladder were also in the top six for contested ball differentials, with Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney sitting first, second and third respectively. Geelong, meanwhile, was 13, conceding an average 2.5 contested possessions per game to its opposition.

Midfield personnel is a key, and something of a dilemma. For while the greater responsibility assumed this season by the likes of Mitch Duncan, George Horlin-Smith and Steven Motlop has clearly given the Cats something, none of that trio are among their side’s elite at winning the contested ball.

In terms of scores for and against, Fremantle before the weekend, was fifth and first respectively, Sydney third and second, Hawthorn first and ninth, each of them top two in at least one of those categories. The Cats were equal sixth and equal seventh.

Even in terms of quarters won across the season, the Cats are only fifth, behind Port Adelaide, Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle. The quarter-by-quarter breakdown is significant, too, the Cats after Saturday night having won 14 first and 12 second terms, but just six and nine wins over the third and fourth.

Their second half against Melbourne in round 17 and Saturday night’s dramatic final-term fade-out have not offered much encouragement that the imbalance is close to being corrected.

The above are all statistics that point to a side thereabouts in the eight rather than one which will still be in second spot and in prime position to host a final in week one of September should Sydney defeat Hawthorn at the MCG this Saturday night.

The biggest key to Geelong’s actual performance matching that status will be the capacity of the large senior core to individually find the same consistency from quarter to quarter Scott has been seeking across the 22.

Skipper Joel Selwood and Steve Johnson are doing it. If Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright, Andrew Mackie and Harry Taylor jump on board more regularly as well, Scott’s glass might come closer to spilling than looking merely half-full.

That, however, remains a considerable “if”. You have to go back to the Cats’ round-five win over Hawthorn, in mid-April, to find an example of the Geelong we have come to know these past eight seasons rather than one in name only.

The version which beat the Hawks would have proved a match for any opponent. But even Geelong knows what it has produced since, when it comes to the biggest of stages, simply won’t cut it.

And while I'm at it...

BYES THE  BOGY?

Not for the first time, we’ve seen what shaped as one of most predictable and drab rounds of the season turn out to be anything but. And you can’t help but wonder to what extent the second bye of the season has played a major part.

The AFL might have been doing the players a big favour when it acquiesced to their union’s push for a second break in a long and draining season, but it’s hard to think their clubs would be nearly as pleased right now.

North Melbourne, having seemingly turned the corner for consistency, reverted to old and costly habits against Carlton. Fremantle turned in one hell of stinker against St Kilda and may have cost itself a realistic tilt at a flag in the process.

Geelong and Port Adelaide, meanwhile, escaped from jail in the nick of time against two opponents with little to play for in ladder terms.

The Roos looked flat. The Power did just enough. Geelong got six goals up and effectively put the cue in the rack. And Fremantle served up the best not-so-glowing example of another playing  group which seemed to have its mind more on how it might spend a free weekend.

Whatever happens when players of all those clubs are back on deck, you can be reasonably confident their coaches will be putting a big circle around the equivalent round when next season’s fixture is released, with a note to pay far closer attention to the mindset of those hanging out for a second  break.

DOCKERS CLOCK OFF

Only once in Ross Lyon’s 66 games as Fremantle coach have the Dockers lost by more than the 58 points St Kilda belted them by on Saturday, and that was late last year when Freo fielded half a reserves team. And it was the nature of this defeat which alarmed as much, if not more, than its size. Fremantle lost by as much to Hawthorn in round four, but that was against a reigning premier in red-hot touch, and when the Dockers were still feeling their way into the season.

This one came against a side which was bottom of the ladder, had lost 11 on the trot and after the Dockers themselves had moved to second spot with an eighth win in a row. That’s some contrast.

It’s also a lapse in attitude that has the potential to turn six months of effort into not much reward. Consider the difficulty of a finals draw for the Dockers involving two home finals en route to grand final day with one potentially taking in two or even three road trips should they finish outside the top four. Lyon was reasonably measured in his press conference response to Saturday’s shocker. We’re tipping his private response on the training track over the next week or so won’t be nearly so diplomatic.

CREDIT FOR CARLTON

There’s been times this season when Mick Malthouse’s claims that his side was better placed than last year seemed laughable. Right now, however, it’s making a lot more sense.

The Blues right now have won exactly half as many games as in 2013. But could last year have thrown up as many pluses on an individual level? It’s doubtful.

Think about the improvement of Sam Rowe, Bryce Gibbs’ emergence into the consistent midfielder Carlton has sought, the promise of Troy Menzel and Levi Casboult, the further maturing of Chris Yarran.

They’re a sample of why wherever the Blues end up finishing, 2014 won’t prove to be a season entirely wasted.