THINK of it as the race before the race.
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When Nationals members from across the Calare electorate meet in Bathurst on Saturday to choose their candidate for the coming federal election, they will, barring a monumental upset in July, be choosing the next Member for Calare.
Retiring member John Cobb secured a 66-34 two-party preferred vote at the 2013 poll, which is a fair mountain to climb for those candidates who will go up against the Nationals’ chosen representative.
And that’s what makes this Saturday so intriguing.
As our form guide for the candidates published today explains, there is a clear favourite in this race before the race, a second favourite and then a couple of roughies.
State Member for Orange Andrew Gee has the benefit of a profile and political experience as he seeks to make the leap to federal politics – but there won’t be too many people thanking him for the cost of the byelection that will follow if he gets the nod.
Bathurst’s Sam Farraway, meanwhile, has the support of Mr Cobb (though the retiring member has not said so publicly) and the Nationals’ Calare Federal Electoral Council president Brett Kenworthy, so can’t be counted out.
He is a high profile figure in Bathurst thanks to his work with the Bathurst Agricultural, Horticultural and Pastoral Association, but that is unlikely to count for much outside the city’s boundaries.
The other two candidates, Orange’s Scott Munro and Wellington’s Alison Conn, are likely to bring up the rear.
So will the race play out as predicted? There have already been a few surprises in the lead-up, so one more certainly could not be counted out.
We’ll be watching the finish line with interest.