WE’VE all heard the expression “lies, damn lies and statistics”, and we should keep that in mind when trying to compare regional and city crime figures.
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An analysis by the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research has listed Bathurst among the worst local government areas in the state for retail thefts and break and enters.
That’s not on raw figures, though, but on “per capita” figures that attempt to create a on more even playing field to compare crime rates in centres of greatly varying populations.
It’s a valid statistical strategy, but does serve to greatly inflate the significance of a single incident of crime in a smaller centre.
By this measure, a single break and enter in a local government area of 40,000 people (like Bathurst) is worth the same as five break and enters in an LGA of 200,000 people (say, Fairfield).
Which is fine when statistics are compared over a long period of time, but can create real anomalies in the shorter term.
When figures are compared across a year, for example, an isolated spate of break and enters in a city like Bathurst has far greater impact on the final statistics than the same isolated spate of incidents in a much larger city.
That’s not to say such statistics should be ignored but, rather, that we should always look beyond the headline figure.
Local police know this and that’s why they urge caution in any analysis of crime statistics.
And while the release of crime statistics gives the broader community the chance to see which areas might need improvement, these are figures that police keep an eye on 12 months of the year.
They’re well aware of the peaks and troughs and nothing in these latest figures will surprise them.
What the figures also provide, though, is a timely reminder that the whole community has a role to play in stopping crime.
Police cannot be everywhere so it is up to the rest of the community to be their eyes and ears, and to speak up when they see something amiss.
Regardless of what the latest figures say, it’s in all our interests to bring the statistics down ever further if we can.
Rather than compare Bathurst crime statistics to big-city figures, there's more value in comparing them to our stats in previous years. That is a true like-for-like comparison, and a real measure of how we're travelling.
