JUST 12 months ago it would have been fanciful to suggest the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party had any real hope of wresting the seat of Bathurst from the Nationals’ grip.
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But a shock result in the Orange by-election last November has re-written the rules of NSW politics and left all three major parties looking over their shoulders.
While even SFF MLC Robert Borsak concedes by-elections are traditionally an opportunity for voters to register a protest vote against the government, the sheer magnitude of the anger expressed in Orange suggested there was something more at play.
And now Paul Toole could have a real fight on his hands in two years’ time, particularly if the SFF can find a high quality candidate to run in this seat.
Orange candidate Phil Donato was just such a candidate and his personal popularity was the difference between winning and losing in an election decided by just 84 votes.
The SFF needs to find another quality candidate for the seat of Bathurst and, crucially, it must be someone who can win votes in and around the city of Bathurst.
Lasting anger over the state government’s failed council amalgamation policy has left a lot of Oberon voters clamouring to support anyone but the Nationals and Lithgow has traditionally been a Labor stronghold so voters there would also happily rail against Mr Toole.
But Bathurst remains the main population centre in the electorate and Mr Toole has always enjoyed incredible support here.
For the SFF to hope to unseat Mr Toole, they need to find a candidate that draws away enough of those rusted-on supporters.
And many of those rusted-on voters are rusted on to Mr Toole, not the Nationals, making the SFF challenge in Bathurst even more difficult than the assignment they faced in Orange.
It’s an enormous mountain to climb and only the bravest punter would be betting against Mr Toole this far out from polling day.
But the SFF would have very real hopes of usurping Labor as the second most powerful party in the electorate and the fact they could be considered any chance at all of an upset simply illustrates how much the political landscape has changed in a relatively short time.
And that’s a story likely to be repeated in every Nationals-held seat in NSW between now and March 2019.
