SATURDAY’S state election result in Victoria must have scared the life out of the NSW Government.
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The election was a spectacular victory for Daniel Andrews’ Labor government, with the ease of the win surprising most observers.
And why not? Elections are usually more difficult for governments than oppositions.
The usual course of events is that the electorate finally becomes fed up with a government after two or three terms and swings dramatically to the other side.
The new government then sees its margin cut at the next few elections until it’s their turn to be turfed out.
So while it is not unheard of for an incumbent government to increase its majority as the Andrews Government did on Saturday, it does send a powerful message when it happens. And the message on Saturday seems to be this: that the Liberal “brand” – and, by association, the Nationals “brand” – has been badly damaged in this country.
It’s impossible to escape the conclusion that federal issues played a significant role in Victoria’s election result. The question both sides of politics want answered, though, is just how much?
Australian voters have shown time and again that they will not tolerate governments knifing elected prime ministers – and will voice their dissatisfaction at whatever election is available.
Labor paid the penalty for its Rudd-Gillard-Rudd turmoil; now the Liberals are paying the electoral price for the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison revolving door of leaders.
And the bad news for the Berejiklian Government in NSW is that they must go to the polls in March, which now also appears certain to be before the next federal election which could, in theory, be called any time now.
The NSW Government has already had its share of pain at a series or by-elections over the past two years and the likely rise of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party in regional areas is just another headache.
But if they also have to contend with voter anger with the federal Liberal Party then they will be scrambling for every seat they can.
The best thing Scott Morrison could do is call a federal election for early in the new year so he and his colleagues can take their medicine and, maybe, save a few state seats in the process.
Don’t hold your breath, tough.