THIS winter is predicted to be so warm and dry that there's at least a 70 per cent chance that the Central West will not exceed its median rainfall for the season.
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The Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) climate outlook for winter paints a grim picture for anyone hoping for good rainfall during the next three months.
There is a 75 per cent chance that areas around Dubbo, Parkes and Mudgee will not exceed median rainfall levels.
This drops slightly to 70 per cent for: Orange, Bathurst, Lithgow, Oberon, Blayney, Cowra and Young.
When it comes to temperatures, there is an 80 per cent chance that the entire Central West will exceed the median maximum temperature during winter.
BoM's manager of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins said the warm, dry conditions experienced in autumn will continue into winter.
"We're looking at drier than average conditions, [and] fairly high odds of getting below average rainfall," he said.
"Warmer than average days, pretty much right over the country, with odds greater than 80 per cent.
"But, in terms of nighttime temperatures, looking a little bit more towards average in the interior of the continent."
VIDEO: Bureau of Meteorology's manager of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins
Dr Watkins said there were two competing drivers behind the weather conditions.
"We're fairly close to El Nino conditions at the moment, not quite hitting the threshold but we are fairly close, that's forecast to ease away over the coming months," he said.
"It will be replaced by a positive Indian Ocean dipole which is a pattern that produces warmer and drier conditions."
Recent very cold conditions from an "Antarctic blast" bringing up snow and cold conditions are set to ease.
Chance of reaching above winter's median rainfall
- Bathurst: Unlikely, 134mm
- Blayney: Unlikely, 203mm
- Cowra: Unlikely, 166mm
- Dubbo: Unlikely, 124mm
- Forbes: Unlikely, 118mm
- Lithgow: Unlikely, 142mm
- Mudgee: Unlikely, 143mm
- Oberon: Unlikely, 157mm
- Orange: Unlikely, 203mm
- Parkes: Unlikely, 146mm
- Young: Unlikely, 176mm
Nadine Morton
Nadine Morton covers emergency services and breaking news for the Illawarra Mercury. She takes pride in regional journalism which she believes is crucial to informing our towns and cities. Have a story? Email her at nadine.morton@austcommunitymedia.com.au
Nadine Morton covers emergency services and breaking news for the Illawarra Mercury. She takes pride in regional journalism which she believes is crucial to informing our towns and cities. Have a story? Email her at nadine.morton@austcommunitymedia.com.au
