IT would be a brave punter that put their house on picking the next Bathurst mayor.
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The region's nine councillors will meet in just two weeks to decide who should take Bathurst's top job for the next 12 months, but there will be many and varied conversations on the issue between now and then.
What we can say with some certainty at this stage is that four councillors - mayor Graeme Hanger, deputy mayor Bobby Bourke and councillors Ian North and Jess Jennings - currently fancy their chances of winning the vote on September 18.
We can also say very confidently that three of them will be disappointed.
Beyond that, who knows?
There is no strong voting bloc on the current council and no firm allegiances among councillors.
The one who might feel she owes a debt is Cr Jacqui Rudge, who was elected to council on the strength of Cr Bourke's preferences, and her vote for mayor will be crucial.
It's unlikely that Cr Bourke can get the five votes needed without Cr Rudge's support, but that's just one scenario out of the countless that will play out over the next fortnight.
It's also likely that at least one of the mayoral hopefuls - and maybe two or three - will see the writing on the wall before nominations are called and withdraw from the race before the starter's gun is sounded.
If that happens, though, who leaves the contest will have as much influence on the final vote as who remains, so it's just another variable to throw in the mix.
It all adds up to one of the greatest mayoral lotteries we've seen in Bathurst for many years and whoever wins the vote will face a tough challenge moulding a harmonious council over the last 12 months of the current term.
The lobbying over the next two weeks will likely see promises made and broken and noses put out of joint.
The fact that four councillors currently believe they have a chance of becoming mayor means there is already some misdirection at play; either some councillors are hedging their bets with regard to their vote or others are misreading their intentions.
Probably a bit of both.
So strap yourselves in for what should be a very interesting two weeks in council's history and a very interesting vote on September 18. And if you think you know how it's all going to pan out, we'd love to hear your theory.