The election campaign endured its first bout of COVID-19 last week, with opposition leader Anthony Albanese forced into isolation at his Sydney home.
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Our Pub Test Panel, though, can't be struck down.
Voices from right across the Calare electorate, the panel this week discusses what Mr Albanese's week off means for his tilt at the Prime Ministership and what, if any, advantage Independent candidate for Calare Kate Hook will get out of being drawn the number one spot on the ballot paper come May 21.
The Western Advocate's Pub Test Panel includes economic developer Stuart Pearson, architect Ingrid Pearson, childcare worker Brayden Jurd and admin support Mackenzie Hastie, small business owner Peter Manwaring, small business owner Matt Bayada and call centre consultant Gail Copping.
Kate Hook nabbed top spot on the ballot paper late last week. Do you think winning the number one spot means anything? Why?
Stuart Pearson: No, it's not important. The incidence of 'donkey votes' in the Calare electorate is quite low, as it was in the Bathurst local government election in December. People generally vote for who they want rather than just going 'one, two, three' straight down the ballot paper.
Ingrid Pearson: It might encourage people who aren't really thinking about the election to put 'one' next to her at the top of the ballot. With that said, the person who's last on the ballot is also easy to find.
Brayden Jurd: Yes, there are still the classic voters who just mark one to whatever down the line. I feel it gives whoever has the number one spot an advantage, not sure how much of one but it is still an advantage.
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Mackenzie Hastie: Winning the number one spot can definitely be indicative of how things may go. It tends to display people's general thoughts. That being said, minds can change quickly- the human heart can be quite fickle! It's a possible sign that Bathurst has had enough of the two-party system, a sentiment I've seen all over the place.
Peter Manwaring: I like Kate's value-based approach, so hopefully she'll nab some donkey votes out of it.
Matt Bayada: Calare and Orange have a history of giving outsiders like Peter Andren a start. The top spot will make it easy for fence sitters to go that way. With the backing of the Climate 200 group, Kate is running a great campaign and I think will be hard to stop.
Gail Copping: Not particularly. Most voters know beforehand whom they will vote for and it's just a matter of looking where they are on the ballot paper. Only the voters who don't care will just start at the top of the ballot paper.
Does Labor's 11th hour nomination of a candidate and the SFF Party's failure to find a suitable candidate make the seat of Calare a two horse race?
Stuart Pearson: Labor and Shooters Fishers and Farmers accounted for around 39 per cent of the Calare vote at the 2019 election, so I think there will be around 20,000 to 25,000 votes that will be looking for a new vote at this year's election, accounting for the fact there will be no Shooters candidate and that Labor delayed the announcement of their candidate and have announced someone not well known in either Bathurst or Orange.
Ingrid Pearson: I've looked at Labor's Calare votes in past elections, and they seem to have reduced over the past few years. There's certainly a mood for change across the electorate, you only have to look at the new faces that were recently elected to the Bathurst and Orange councils, and federally, independent Kate Hook is emerging as Andrew Gee's main challenger, because neither major party is really listening to the community.
Brayden Jurd: You never know for sure. Labor has held this seat for a long time in the past and so has an Independent before. As for the SFF, I really don't think even with a suitable candidate that they would win, they have never held a federal seat before and I doubt Calare would be their first. It would seem at the moment it is a two horse race but we will see on the day.
Mackenzie Hastie: It's looking like that. We'll see if anything changes but it's looking like it might end up being a two horse race.
Peter Manwaring: Given the size of the swing needed for Gee to lose, it's almost a one horse race, but hopefully people get behind someone like Hook to send a strong message that the Calare voters can't be taken for granted.
Matt Bayada: I suspect the role of the Labor candidate is to direct preferences to the Teal Climate 200 Candidate which is the establishment's real hope, the Labor candidate won't find much support.
Gail Copping: Unless you nominate early and get your campaign up and running, most people will vote either one or the other of the major parties. If they have never heard of the candidate or if the candidate hasn't taken the time to go into the community and speak one-on-one to the voters, they won't get the vote. Being proactive on the ground can get you votes. The late Peter Andren did that when he first campaign in 1996.
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