Following the May 21 federal election, incumbent Andrew Gee was able to increase his margin, with a 3.55 per cent swing in his favour.

The increase in votes has been attributed to the absence of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party on the ballot paper, that party in 2019 attracting just over 18,000 first preference votes.

READ MORE: The factor that helped Andrew Gee gain votes in the federal election

Mr Gee's nearest competitor at the most recent election, independent Kate Hook, received 20,740 first preference votes compared to his 48,714.

Meanwhile, the Labor Party, which traditionally runs second to the Nationals saw a 7.21 per cent swing against them in 2022.

Charles Sturt University (CSU) political science academic, Professor Dominic O'Sullivan, said it would be difficult for Calare to shake its status as a Nationals safe seat.

He said that regional Australia has "a deep social conservatism", making the Nationals an appealing choice for a lot of voters.

READ ALSO: Kate Hook backs future independent candidates in Calare after 'groundswell' of support

While independents were able to claim multiple seats from the Coalition in the inner cities at the federal election, it was the Liberals that were losing out, not the Nationals.

"They're appealing to different constituencies and I think the Liberals need to win more seats for the Coalition to have a chance at forming government, and that means the Liberals need to appeal to the broader constituency," he said.

Mr O'Sullivan said that it would take a unique candidate to see a change of leadership in Calare and, without it, it is likely to remain a Nationals seat.

"For Calare to go to an independent at the present time, the Nationals would have to run either a deeply unpopular candidate, or perhaps the demographics of the electorate change a little bit, or an independent of real deep local connections and strong respect and following might have a chance," Mr O'Sullivan said.

"It's a very, very hard electorate to succeed in as a candidate for any other party than the Nationals."

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