Just six months ago, despite the Coalition Government’s lacklustre performance and a string of contentious decisions, it still seemed laughable to suggest that Labor’s Luke Foley might have a real chance at the state election next March.

The billion-dollar Sydney stadiums project and Ferry McFerryface embarrassment were only ever going to be speed bumps on the way to a new term for the Coalition, even if the government came out of the election with a reduced majority.

In fact, it was the emerging the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party that was expected to present the major threat to the government, not the uninspiring Mr Foley.

But nobody is laughing now.

An opinion poll released this week found that Mr Foley was now neck-and-neck with Gladys Berejiklian as preferred premier.

This is uncharted territory for the long-serving opposition leader but perhaps still says more about the government’s performance than his own.

As the government – both prior to and since Ms Berejiklian’s elevation to premier – has lurched from one backflip or blunder to the next, Mr Foley has happily flown under the radar, gathering neither bouquets nor brickbats for his efforts.

And now, almost from nowhere, he appears a genuine chance of winning government in his own right or, at least, forcing the Coalition into minority government. Either would be a stunning result.

Of course, the warning signs have been there for some time but few outside the Labor Party have so far taken them seriously.

Phil Donato’s victory for the SFF at the Orange by-election in 2016 was easily dismissed as a protest vote against Mike Baird’s failed greyhound racing ban and council amalgamations, while independent Joe McGirr’s victory in Wagga Wagga earlier this month could be waved away as a backlash against the questionable dealings of disgraced former MP Daryl Maguire.

But the straws are really piling up on the camel’s back and there is no guarantee it will hold out until March.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott and former premier Bob Carr were both considered unelectable for a long time in opposition, but both finally prevailed through an irresistible combination of persistence and political nous.

Mr Foley is starting to show he is ready to follow their lead.