FUNNY things, by-elections.
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If you lost it, you never thought you'd win it anyway. If you won it, no-one else thought you'd win but you, crucially, always knew you were in with a strong chance.
The voters of the electorate in a by-election might be a sophisticated bunch who cast their votes with only the one tier of government in mind or they might be an angry mob taking the chance to register a howl of disapproval at the tier that was not actually on trial.
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Was it a verdict on state or federal or both? Depends who you ask.
A by-election can be a test of an Opposition leader's authority. It can be a test of a prime minister's authority - as long as the person declaring it's a test of the prime minister's authority is certain the by-election result is going to erode the prime minister's authority.
If the result doesn't embarrass the prime minister, or the Opposition leader, it was never actually a test for them anyway.
A by-election can be a referendum on big national issues like climate change or economic reform. It can be a referendum on the state of politics itself.
It can be the death knell for one of the two main branches of politics (until the next by-election is held).
The by-election is the Rorschach test of Australian politics. It is the magic eye picture of Australian politics - you might stare and stare and still never see what makes the person beside you let out a low whistle of appreciation.
The by-election is not particularly reliable. Mike Baird's NSW Government lost the long-held seat of Orange in a combustible by-election in November 2016 and the state had a new deputy premier and premier before January 2017 was finished.
Bill Shorten won four by-elections on one day in July 2018 and lost a federal election he was supposed to win the next year.
The by-election is too loaded with baggage to be too loaded with meaning, but we'll all try to find meaning anyway.
It's the result of some unexpected mid-term event - in the case of Eden-Monaro, the retirement due to illness by the local member - and it's conducted in a feverish, high-tension atmosphere under a blinding national glare, but we'll pretend it's an even playing field and that there's nothing distorted or unusual about it.
Funny things, by-elections. You never know what they'll reveal.