NSW Government revises 2041 Bathurst population projection

A report has been prepared ahead of the July 20 Bathurst Regional Council ordinary meeting, which details revised figures for the Bathurst local government area.

Council and the Central NSW Joint Organisation (CWNSW JO) have successfully lobbied the NSW Government to revise the projections for Bathurst after they "strongly objected" to the figures.

"The projections had population growth in the Bathurst LGA falling to historical lows, despite the significant demand for residential property and the number of major projects/investments planned throughout the Bathurst Region," the report from council staff states.

The new projection is for a population of 57,060 by 2041, up from an original forecast of 50,050 by then.

READ ALSO: Census figures show Bathurst keeping population pace with Central West heavyweights

While the numbers are more realistic, they still aren't high enough for council's liking.

The recommendation from council staff is to continue to use the .id Consulting projections, which have projected a population of 58,622 by 2041, when planning for future growth.

Councillor Warren Aubin said the importance of accurate population projections can't be underestimated when it comes to future planning for a regional city.

Bathurst has already seen what can happen when projections are well off.

"They predicted Bathurst to reach 43,000 by 2035 and we reached it in 2019," Cr Aubin said.

"... Step back to our hospital. They predicted those figures in 2008 and now they're having to put another $200 million into infrastructure for that building.

"That was a massive underestimate of population, which has caused this government now to have to spend a heap of money to bring it up to speed.

"Same with population predictions for the future. Council has to know for predicting housing and land, and also all our infrastructure - our roads, our sewer, our water - everything has to be equal to what's happening with population."

He is happy to see council still plans to use the .id Consulting projections, but he fears that even they could fall short after the unprecedented growth regional areas have experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

READ MORE: Census shows how Bathurst has grown: in population, average age and rental burden

"I reckon we'll be closer to 60,000-plus the way it is going at the moment. The thing that we've got going for us out here is, post-pandemic, people don't want to live in big cities. If they get that sort of thing again they get locked in," Cr Aubin said.

"The other thing is, even though our housing prices have gone up exponentially, they're still probably 50 per cent or more of what you'd pay in Sydney for a house, so you find that people can sell up in Sydney, come out here, have a tree change, buy a really nice house and still have money in the bank."

Data from the 2021 census put Bathurst's population at 45,077, up 5.9 per cent since the last census in 2016.

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